India Wind Power Update

A quick update on the wind power scene in India.

New Installations

Suzlon Energy is setting up a 150 MW wind power project in Sangli district of Maharashtra for Reliance Energy, which is part of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. The project will be completed in two phases, and when complete will supply 380 million units per year, all of which REL will use for its distribution business in Bombay. In the next 2-3 years REL will set up 500 MW of wind power in various states, further boosting the domestic wind power scene. NTPC is also expected to give due importance to wind power in its, "plans to generate 1,000 megawatts of power through renewable energy sources by 2017".

New Manufacturing

In another move that is likely to benefit Indian wind power equipment manufacturers, Belgium-based Hansen Transmissions will set up a greenfield plant to manufacture gearboxes for wind turbines in the megawatt range, near Coimbatore. The plant will be operational in late 2008, and will reach full capacity of 1500 to 2000 gearboxes by 2010, at which time it will

Inorganic Growth

Meanwhile Suzlon's battle with Areva, the world's biggest manufacturer of nuclear power stations, to buy German wind-turbine maker REpower Systems goes on. Last month Suzlon topped the French Areva's offer of 105-euros per share with an offer of 126-euros per share. Areva responded yesterday with an offer of 140-euros per share. Areva already owns 30% of REpower, while Suzlon is partnering with Portuguese company Martifier, which owns 25% of REpower, and a consortium of banks led by ABM Amro, on the bid. In response to the new bid, Suzlon apparently is considering an offer of 160-euros per share.

Battery Warriors

While the future of the EEStor battery is clouded with uncertainty, there are a bunch of companies that are working on some less startling but significantly important improvements to battery technology - and their newest ally is nanotechnology.

More Recharge Cycles

One such company is Altair Nanotechnologies. "Lithium-ion batteries, commonly used in laptops and cellphones, have a relatively short life span because they use graphite, which wears out quickly in normal usage. The Altair team substituted a nanomaterial called lithium titanate that lasts much longer. The change lengthened the life of a lithium-ion battery from 750 recharges to between 10,000 and 15,000 recharges."

Safer Recharging

High profile A123 Systems used a different approach and a different nano-material. "Most safety issues in batteries occur during charging, and nanophosphate is much less prone to such problems. So A123 replaced the cobalt oxide in lithium-ion cells with nanophosphate." In addition to making the battery safer, it also ensured delivery of very high power. In fact an electric motorcycle based on such a battery achieved 0 to 60 mph in just 1.4 seconds. Based on its batteries, A123 has also developed a conversion kit that can convert regular hybrids into plug-in hybrids, though the kit is yet to hit the market.

Increased Shelf-life

mPhase addressed a different problem faced by the industry, and created a battery with indefinite shelf life. "Using nanomaterials and basic physics principles, mPhase kept the chemicals inside the battery from mixing – the cause of gradual power leakage – until it was used. Such batteries could be used for emergency lighting systems, for example, that might not be used for 10 years, but would require full power when needed."

The Future

There is some amazing research going on at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"Prof. Angela Belcher, a biomolecular materials chemist at MIT, is trying to use biological methods, such as viruses, to assemble batteries", while, 'Professor Chiang, who also researches self- assembling batteries, imagines an ink-like substance that would allow one to "paint" a battery onto a device.'

If these techniques could revolutionize manufacturing of batteries, wireless charging will elevate battery applications to an entirely new level.

Despite all the naysayers, MIT researchers are gung-ho about the potential for ultracapacitors as batteries. This is similar to what EEStor plans to do, alternate technologies to achieve the same means would be good for the industry.

EEStor - A Revolution in the Making?

When Business 2.0 published this list of 11 disruptors, or companies that, "will change everything", one company clearly stood out in that list, for if it could indeed deliver what was being claimed it would become the biggest disruptor of them all. Here was a product which could kill companies, industries and potentially entire economies - that was the scale of its disruptive potential. That company was EEStor, and the product, a battery.

The Promise

The buzz was that EEStor, Inc, a secretive Texas-based company, could deliver a battery based on ultra-capacitor technology that in out-performing any battery that existed today would present electricity storage solutions that would in one stroke make a variety of alternate energy solutions suddenly very viable - an ultra efficient and long-lasting battery would make wind and solar power plants very viable, as the vagaries of production would be ironed out - even at the level of individual homes. You would see electric cars able to compete with IC-engine cars favorably in terms of range and recharge times. We would at once see a big churn in two of the biggest industries of our time - oil and automobiles. The possibilities of course are endless.

So what exactly is the claim? Sample this, "EEStor’s products, to be known as Electrical Energy Storage Units [EESU], will start coming off a production line this year. The first EESU will be a 45 kg unit that gives a car a 350 km range and can be recharged in under ten minutes. In comparison with petrofuels, a EESU cars’s running cost will be 80% cheaper." And this, "The company boldly claims that its system, a kind of battery-ultracapacitor hybrid based on barium-titanate powders, will dramatically outperform the best lithium-ion batteries on the market in terms of energy density, price, charge time, and safety. Pound for pound, it will also pack 10 times the punch of lead-acid batteries at half the cost and without the need for toxic materials or chemicals, according to the company."

The Technology

Though capacitor-based batteries are not new, they have never been able to hold as much energy as electrochemical batteries of the same size. They would also discharge rather quickly, unable to hold the charge for long. On the plus side, they can store and release most of the energy with minimum losses, which means they are very efficient. They can also be charged very quickly. While this has ensured that they have their set of unique applications, they could never be used, say, to power electric cars.

The Skeptics

Because EEStor is so secretive, most of the latest news on the product has either come via the patent office, or the electric car company which currently has an exclusive deal to use their batteries. And because the company is quiet, there are a lot of unanswered questions out there. Do check out the comments section of this article for instance. Skeptics include a VP from Maxwell Technologies, which has been making ultra-capacitor batteries for a while now, though nothing close to the specs needed to compete with lead acid or lithium ion batteries. On its part, EEStor claims that releasing information would result in giving away a competitive advantage.

The Supporters

On the one hand we have ZENN a Toronto-based electric car-maker, who are planning to release a car based on the EEStor battery as early as this year. That is a vote of confidence from the consumer community. On the other hand we have hotshot venture capitalists Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, who had invested in EEStor back in 2005. Kleiner has a well-known early investment track record in companies like Google and Amazon.

Finally it makes sense to respect the bite of a dog that does not bark much.

Reva - "World's highest selling electric car"

With 700 of its electric vehicles plying on the roads of London, the Reva seems to have the highest number of electric cars in one city anywhere in the world. This is an achievement, though not quite what I had hoped for when I posted on the Reva's entry in the UK back in 2005.

In December last year, Reva received an investment of $20 million from Draper Fisher Jurveston and Global Environment Fund. This was the first investment for GEF in an electric car company, and it did come at a good time for Reva Electric Car Company (RECC) which was going through a financial crisis. The market needed better marketing and better cars, implying more R&D spend, but the sales pipeline was not generating enough optimism in that direction.

The company also claims to have become the "highest selling on-road electric vehicle globally" last year. Also, "Reva car is currently available on sale in India and is also marketed in UK", and some other European countries. Norway, Spain and Greece are likely to see some focussed marketing in the next few months in part via auto shows.

To put things into perspective, RECC has so far only sold 1800 cars globally. Looks like the company is pretty confident of that changing soon. Apparently it expects to sell another 300 cars in London alone in the next 6 months. And in the next 18 months, RECC intends to ramp-up its production from the current capacity of 6000 units annually, to 35,000 units annually in 18 months. That might help it retain its position as the top manufacturer of electric cars from a Chinese company which will build a plant capable of producing 20,000 units annually by 2007.

World's biggest construction project - an Eco City

It is a fact that more and more of humanity is getting concentrated in cities, and nowhere is this process proceeding at a pace compared to that in countries that are growing fast - like China and India. I have in the past suggested that sustainability in the longer run should involve maximizing the percentage of humanity in cities, while making the cities themselves eco-friendly to the extent of having a zero environmental footprint.

China is taking a step in this direction, by setting out to construct 11 eco-friendly cities, starting with Dongtan on Chonming island just off Shanghai. When ready in 2030 it would be 75% the size of Manhattan, and have one-third the eco-footprint of Shanghai (and about half the world average). The plans suggest an environmentalist's dream - pristine wetlands beside a metro station from where people cycle back to their solar powered homes. Ideally situated homes will also have windmills to supplement the solar power, as will a central biomass energy station. The automobiles would be electric, and these will include zippy sports cars which the towns residents can use for an evening drive into Shanghai via the 30 km bridge and tunnel link to the center of Shanghai which will then be just a 20 minute drive away. Food (vegetables) for the city will be grown within the city, water will be recycled, as will all municipal industrial waste - thus no landfills.

The Dongtan project has been making waves in the eco-fraternity. It is being seen as an inspiration for cities world-wide. For instance, "Mayor of London Ken Livingstone is reportedly interested in Dongtan as a possible blueprint for development in London".

The skeptic speaks

Setting up eco-cities is no doubt a great effort, but the context somehow reminds one of efforts like in this image, where officials literally painted a mountainside green (click on the image for the link to the story).

Further, even when Dongtan is fully set up in 2030, it will only have a population of half a million. The other ten eco-cities will probably have less. Meanwhile China already has 90 cities with a population of 1 million or more. The capital Beijing counts the number of blue sky days it gets in a year - and that does not take into account the shade of blue. And while the biomass generator of Dongtan is being readied, coal plants will keep keep popping up by the dozens each year. From a propaganda perspective there is no doubt that the eco-cities will be a spectacular achievement for the Chinese leadership.

On the bright side

The bright-side-potential of course is huge. The eco-cities if built will be a giant leap forward for the concept of sustainability. Simple concepts that are tried and tested in the eco-cities can then be quickly replicated in already established cities, while the cities could definitely serve as role models for any new cities, towns or even townships being built.

The SunCube - an Innovative Solar Power solution

Last month, an Indian company, Square Engineering, signed an agreement with Green and Gold Energy (GGE) "to build a 30-megawatt (MW) facility in India for the manufacture of 100,000 SunCubes per year".

Green and Gold Energy were working on the SunBall rooftop solar concentrator systems back in 2005. As solar concentrator systems went, it was a very simple and elegant solution and even worked well on sloping rooftops. Manufacturing issues however forced GGE to go back to the drawing board. So they came back with something better - the SunCube, which not only solved the manufacturing problems, but also enabled the company to cut costs. GGE now claims that their product can compete with traditional power without subsidies. Well, a commitment to annually manufacture 100,000 units in India should speak volumes for their confidence.

Solar concentrator systems have been a relatively less hi-tech but highly effective solution for a while now. The Sunflower is a similar system that has been making waves, but apparently will not reach the international market till some time in 2008. Compared to the Sunflower the SunCube is a significantly simple product, though it works on a similar process - solar concentrators focusing the sun's rays onto a small solar cell with a microchip-controlled motors that keep the concentrators pointing to the sun.

Lets check out the commercial prospects of the SunCube in India. The annual output for one SunCube is: 0.3 X 365 X 5 (this is the daily KWhs per sq m - I am taking this as 5, which is just above average for India). That gives us about 550 units of power per year, or about Rs 1100 per year. That is a conservative estimate of course - commercial establishments would save double of that at least.

Now what will the product cost? The company website claims a price of US$1025, or about INR 46,000, including tax in Australia. If manufactured in India, it should cost a little less than that. Plus the central govt gives a subsidy of up to 125,000 per KW. I dont know the KW rating of the SunCube, but working backwards from 500 units, and assuming 6 hours of sunlight per day, I can assume a KW rating of 0.25, which means a govt subsidy of about INR 31,000. This brings down the cost of the SunCube to just INR 15,000, which a home can recover in about 13 years, and a commercial establishment can recover in half that time. Importantly for the rest of the 25 year life of the product, the power will be free. But yes, it does look like it would need govt subsidies to compete in India; and feed-in tariffs. Since both factors see a happy confluence in India, we should see a bright prospect for the SunCube.

Now dont rule the Sunflower out, yet - when it comes out in 2008, it will cost only $450 and will be mass-produced in China. The SunCube does have a headstart though, and maybe manufacturing in India will help it bring down prices substantially. Whatever the result, the competition should be good for solar power as a whole.

A Non-Traditional Push for Green Energy

Bank of America is showing how an organization traditionally not considered at the forefront of the energy revolution can try to make a big difference for sustainable energy. The Green Wombat reports that BofA is making a big $20 billion push in favor of green energy by encouraging it both with customers and within itself.

"The bank will spend $18 billion on commercial green lending." This includes due consideration for green efforts of a company on a loan application: "a company that makes less carbon-intensive widgets will score higher on a loan application than one whose production process consumes more fossil fuels." Incentives like lower interest rates will also benefit house mortgages where customers meet energy efficiency standards in new homes. An "eco-friendly" credit card will send a percentage of each purchase to environmental organizations.

Separately, "$2 billion will be spent on consumer programs and efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact of its own operations. The bank itself will spend $1.4 billion to ensure all new offices and bank branches meet green building standards and spend $100 million on energy efficiency measures in older facilities. Earlier this year Bank of America offered $3,000 rebate to any of its 185,000 employees that buy a fuel-efficient hybrid car."

Green Wombat wonders if BofA would finance a range of alternate energy projects that currently fall outside the radar of VCs, or those without access to VCs. This includes capital-intensive projects like factories and 250-MW solar power plants. That, is a tantalizing thought.

Update: Interview with James Mahoney, director of public policy at BofA. The "tantalizing thought" above was confirmed wrong:

"Green Wombat: Will Bank of America be involved in project financing, say for utility-scale solar power plants or wind farms?

"Mahoney: We generally are not involved in project finance. As a general matter, I’d say no."

Gadhia - Solar Cooking System Major

The current boom in solar technology manufacturing in India is epitomized by companies like Solar Semiconductor - set-up by US-based NRIs, with a base in the US, working with cutting-edge solar PV technologies with an eye as much on the international market as on the Indian one. But India already has a significant solar power culture in the cooking and heating arena, and at the forefront of that revolution were companies like Gadhia.

Gadhia Solar Energy Systems was founded by the Gadhia couple when they returned to India in 1988 from Germany with the German Scheffler cooker. Though the Scheffler cooker was a wonderful application of solar power, the Gadhias felt they had to change the product to better suit the Indian market.

"First there should be local components as far as possible, second, made with local skills and third operate it with people who did not know much about science and physics. So that's why had to modify," Deepak (Gadhia). >>Link

Last year, in a project sponsored by an Austrian NGO Gadhia supplied solar cookers to all 36 families in Bysanivaripalle a village 125 km northwest of Tirupati. As a result, "The village saves 72 tonnes of firewood, or 5,832 kg of LPG, cutting carbon dioxide emissions to the tune of 104 tonnes a year".

The company is now promoting Solar Steam Cooking Systems which they have already installed at the Shirdi and Tirupati temples. "Gadhias are also looking at applications like crematoriums and cooling plants in hospitals and hotels...", as well as, "applications like drinking water from sea water, desalination, food processing, waste water evaporation".

While the oncoming PV boom would be a great sign for India, including for the rural masses, there will always be a market for efficient applications of solar technologies like the Scheffler systems.

MBPV to set up the world's largest Thin Film Solar Fab

Just days after inaugurating a 40 MW PV cell production facility (which is on target to reach 80 MW this year), Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announced much more ambitious plans for manufacturing thin film solar cells: to build the biggest plant in the world, in technology partnership with Applied Materials.

The technology partnership will enable a synergy between Moser Baer's manufacturing and technology strength, its European R&D lab and Applied Material, Inc.'s process and equipment development expertise. The combined capabilities bring scale economies to this industry by manufacturing thin film modules that are four times larger than current modules, making it a disruptive technology that provides a road map to sub-dollar per watt costs.

The $250m project will start with 40 MW and ramp up to 200 MW by 2009. Since the thin film market demand is estimated to reach 2 GW by 2010, MBPV looks set to capture 10% global market share by then. This would however be less than the proverbial tip of the iceberg. By 2010 thin film will be able to compete with fossil fuel power (without subsidies) and will see exponential growth from that stage.

The company has entered into a technology partnership with US-based Applied Materials to build the unit in its existing SEZ at Greater Noida... The unit for making thin films would be commercially operational by March 2008... Applied Materials CTO Mark Pinto said, "India holds tremendous potential both as a worldwide hub for solar panel production and as an end market for photovoltaic electric power." >>Rediff

Moser Baer PV, currently the hottest solar PV company in India, obviously intends to become the Suzlon of the relatively more hi-tech solar PV industry. A strong PV manufacturing capability will raise the hi-tech profile of Indian industry to that of those on the cutting-edge of semi-conductor and nano-technology manufacturing.

Links: Report on marketwatch.com
MBPV production facility on track

India's 17th Nuclear Reactor Goes Critical

India's indigenous nuclear reactor, Kaiga 3, achieved criticality earlier this week (10:10 am IST on Feb 26th). The 220 MWe pressurized heavy water reactor in Uttara Kannada district in Karnataka will start supplying electricity to the grid by the end of March. For the scientists and engineers working on the project it was a time for celebration.

At a press conference following a celebratory ceremony, Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, said the construction technique had been perfected: "Five years is the international benchmark for completing nuclear power plants and along with the project completion costs for this unit, there is going to be a new benchmark."

NPCIL claim that the new reactor was constructed domestically for just Rs 984 ($22.33) per installed kW. NPCIL estimate it could do the same job in certain countries for Rs 1200 ($27.24) per kW. Compared to a global average price of new nuclear construction of $1500 per kW, Indian contractors could occupy a unique place in the world reactor market. >> World Nuclear News

The numbers do look too good to be true (feedback on corrections is welcome). However, if they are true, then they represent a huge cost advantage for the Indian nuclear reactor industry. So while the US is looking for huge business opportunities in the domestic Indian nuclear power market, India is looking for opportunities in countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, which have smaller electricity grids where the 220 MW reactors would be ideal.

Of course India will have to break into the NSG first, which despite US enthusiasm might be more difficult than building the breakthrough technology. Well the scientists and engineers have delivered - it is largely up to the politicians and diplomats now.

The Dabhol Return - On Track

For years we lamented that while Maharashtra was suffering from severe power shortage, the state-of-the-art 2 GW gas-powered Dabhol power plant was rotting. Though the power shortage will remain for now, Dabhol at least is set to make a comeback at optimum capacity - despite problems that still remain.

Maharashtra will likely get some relief from its power woes in the next month or two when Dabhol starts supplying power from its 700 MW first phase which is already complete. The pipeline supplying gas will be ready in April while the second phase is expected to be ready in time for the summer bringing on line another 700 MW. By December the third phase will come on line too which will push the total capacity to 2100 MW. The power being supplied at Rs 3.3 (US$ 0.075) per unit will be considerably lower than the Rs 8.3 it proposed to pay, and almost Rs 9 it ultimately agreed to pay to buy naphtha-powered electricity from AP.

While the State Govt is eagerly waiting for the 2100 MW Dabhol will bring on line by December, Ratnagiri Gas & Power Pvt. Ltd. (RGPPL), the present owners of Dabhol may have other plans than to sell all of that power to the Govt at the contracted rate. The reasons are purely economic.

The deal to sell power to the Govt at Rs 3.3 was struck when gas prices were in the $2-$3 range. Now that price is in the $7-$8 range, "making the plant financially unviable". This in addition to current cost over-runs on the project of around Rs 1,000 crore (~$225m). The financial institutions supporting the project are expected to shell out close to Rs 1,800 crore (~$400m) for a full refurbishment of the plant. To make good the losses, the owners hope to sell the output of phase 3 at Rs 4 per unit after rolling that phase off into a merchant plant. For its part the Maharashtra Govt has offered to fund a Rs 450 crore shortfall in funds for the project.

The decision currently lies with the central govt which has formed an empowered Group of Ministers (eGoM) for the purpose. Though led by Pranab Mukherjee, it has 4 ministers from Maharashtra and that in true triumph of politics-over-economics might well swing the scales in favor of the state. Meanwhile the Central Govt is also considering a proposal to sell the third phase off to a private developer.

Big Californian push for Wave Power

As pointed out in an earlier post, what we call wave, tidal, ocean or lunar power (though not technically all the same) may not hold the potential that wind or solar has to solve the world's energy problems, but in its own way it has great potential in some locations around the world.

California is probably the leading green-conscious state in the US, and is driving innovation in green technologies like few other regions in the world. To meet state mandated targets the power utility PG&E continues to explore a variety of alternate energy sources. Now it is seriously considering wave power.

From Point Break to Pacific Blue, the waves of California's northern coast are legendary among surfing enthusiasts. PG&E intends a little more productive use of this awesome force of nature.

The Green Wombat reports that PG&E is going ahead with plans to set up two 40 MW wave farms, an effort when completed 3 years from now could make PG&E the biggest wave power generator in the world.

'PG&E is in early discussions with wave energy companies Ocean Power Technologies of New Jersey, the U.K's Ocean Power Delivery and Ireland's Finavera Renewables, utility spokesman Keely Wachs told Green Wombat. Ocean Power Technologies is developing what it calls a PowerBuoy. The device floats on the ocean's surface and as the buoy bobs around on waves, the motion is converted to mechanical energy that drives a generator. Ocean Power Delivery's wave energy generator consists of snake-like, hinged cylindrical sections called a Pelamis (image). As the Pelamis moves on the waves, the motion powers hydraulic motors connected to a generator. Finavera is making what it calls an AquaBuoy that "converts the kinetic energy of the vertical motion of oncoming waves into clean electricity. " '

The projects called WindConnect were recently fast-tracked and PG&E is also partnering with neighboring states to explore the options of getting wind power from British Columbia in Canada which is known to have huge potential.

MBPV production facility on track

Moser Baer Photo Voltaic is on track to meet its 2007 production targets.

Moser Baer India has said that Moser Baer Photo Voltaic (MBPV) Mar. 02, 2007 announced that it has successfully completed final line integration and trials on its initial 40 MW crystalline photovoltaic cell production facility. The company remains on target to achieve 80 MW of capacity in the second half of 2007.

MBPV plans to clearly straddle multiple future technologies and emerge as an engineering and technology driven company. The company is decisively responding to the rapidly expanding solar PV market, where worldwide demand far outstrips supply. MBPV is moving towards technological leadership in this high growth industry and developing a sustainable competitive edge by investing into disruptive technologies.

The global photovoltaic market is on a high growth curve - sales expected to grow over 6x to USD 40 billion by 2010. This demand is also highly price elastic. A lowering of PV electricity costs to conventional levels could exponentially expand this market as PV starts to penetrate into base load demand of electricity.

Related post: Moser Baer going strong on Solar PV

Solar Semiconductor to manufacture PV modules

Solar Semiconductor is setting up a solar PV module manufacturing facility in India. For this facility, they recently purchased a module manufacturing line from P. Energy of Italy.

The line has an annual capacity of 50 MW, and is highly automated. It line can handle both standard and custom module designs. The plant has the option of adding a second line within one year of the completion of installation of the current line.

Gabriele Pettenuzzo, the President of P-Energy expressed, "P.Energy is very proud to start with this first venture in India. This module line will be the most automated PV module assembly line in Asia. In this line we'll install 4 robots in different locations in the line- at lay up, trimming and framing stations. It is also the first time that we are providing a tabber and stringer with the capability of providing two or three bus bars." - Link

Apart from crystalline silicon, the plant will also be able to handle amorphous, BIPV and thin film modules. Kewl!

In many ways this announcement shows the way forward for the Indian solar PV industry. Adhering to world class standards this plant represents a growing competency among solar equipment manufacturers and points to a bleeding-edge technological future for the lot. Solar Semiconductor represents a new generation of solar manufacturers. With offices in California and Hyderabad, it is managed by a group of NRI's with a strong business and technology background. And so also VC funds.

Moser Baer going strong on Solar PV

After establishing its credentials in the world optical storage media market Moser Baer has been expanding its horizons by getting into manufacturing solar photovoltaics.

In late 2005 the company announced that it was getting into the PV business with a $25 million investment into a new wholly-owned subsidiary - Moser Baer Photo Voltaic. With an initial project cost of $58m the target was to reach a capacity of 80MW by 2007.

"Moser Baer is targeting the two segments in the PV value chain that are most attractive from a synergy standpoint, since they also leverage the company’s manufacturing competencies—solar cells and modules. At present, of the multiple technology options, crystalline silicon technology has proven to be the most viable for cell-making, with over 90% of global cell production based on crystalline silicon."

While MBPV seems to be concentrating on crystalline silicon while thin-film is grabbing all the attention, it should be noted that at present both technologies are more or less equal as far as capital costs go. While thin-film has a lot of inherent advantages that should see its cost going down, hetero-structures (as covered briefly here) offer an avenue for big efficiency increases with crystalline solar cells too, and the two technologies might remain neck-to-neck for some time. More importantly crystalline silicon is slightly more of a here-and-now solution.

Even so, MBPV certainly has hedged its bets on the future too. Last year they invested in three companies working on cutting-edge solar PV technologies and have established strategic partnerships with all three. With this they also get their fingers into the solar concentrator PV (Solaria and SelFocus) and nanostructure PV (Stion) pies. The investments are part of an earlier decision to invest $17 m in emerging technologies.

The coup de grace came in earlier this month when Moser Baer acquired Philips' optical technology and R&D subsidiary, OM&T. In many ways this was a dream acquisition for Moser Baer. It will help further consolidate MB in the optical media segment as OM&T is the only company outside of Japan that is shipping Blu-ray discs (MB is already established in the HD DVD-R segment). It also gives MB an entry into new formats like Holographic Storage and leadership position in Test Discs which disk manufacturers use to calibrate their drives. Most importantly the acquisition comes with a pool of highly qualified scientists who will continue to ensure a leadership position for the company in emerging technologies.

MBPV will benefit big time from the acquisition too. "OM&T also possesses world class capabilities in thin film, wet chemical processing, optics & concentration and testing procedures which will enable Moser Baer to take a significant leap forward in R&D efforts in multiple PV technology forays."

In the meantime, MBPV keeps its short-term focus right on track. They seem to have made a significant move to insulate themselves from the (current) world-wide shortage of quality silicon when they announced a partnership with a Solar World group company, Deutsche Solar.

'Commenting on the strategic alliance, Ravi Khanna, CEO, Moser Baer Photo Voltaic Ltd, said, "This arrangement will ensure that we have an assured supply of silicon wafers of top quality at competitive prices. With the agreement, we have secured over 50 per cent of our short- to medium- term requirement of silicon." '

Clearly this is one Indian company which is set for big things in the global solar stakes.

Feed-in Tariffs Promote Renewable Energy

Via WorldChanging...

Here is a quick primer on the "German model of feed-in tariffs (an obligation for utilities to purchase, at a set price, the electricity generated by any renewable energy resource)" from Canada's Ecology Action center.

The linked pdf argues strongly for a feed-in tariff system that encourages individuals to install alternate energy systems that lets them feed excess power generated back to the grid and get paid for it. The utility gets power without having to spend on new infrastructure. The individual takes the risk in installing the new infrastructure, but has a guaranteed market in the form of the utility which takes the 'risk' in marketing the new power.

Feed-in tariffs have been the force behind the spectacular success of renewables in Germany:

• In the 1990s European countries introduced it and it’s now in India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Latvia, Brazil, Indonesia, Nicaragua, China, etc — over 30 countries
• Germany is the most famous as it’s premium is the highest and since 2000 has produced a doubling in renewable energy fed into the German grid with a seven x increase in installed PV...
• The German law guarantees the supplier with 20 years premium rates and pays more on a sliding scale
• The sooner the installation is made from a commencement date the higher the feed in price — to encourage early take up
• Germany wants to improve its long-term energy security, increase sustainable energy as a proportion of the total used and now 10.2% of electricity in Germany comes from renewable.

Thin-film Solar - getting there....

Thin-film Solar is touted as the future of solar photo-voltaic technology. Shell recently got out of the crystalline solar cell business to concentrate exclusively on thin-film solar. Big boy of the thin-film world, Nanosolar, has Google as one of its investors. Konarka touting its "power plastic" has got a fair share of the media spotlight too. Swiss start-up Flisom is another of the company that is very bullish on the thin film technology.

Via TreeHugger, Anil Sethi, the chief executive of Flisom believes that within 5 years solar power will be cheap enough to compete with carbon-based electricity even in Upper Siberia.

The promise that nanotechnology will deliver paper-thin solar panels light and cheap enough to coat on entire buildings, and even people's clothes has been well published. The technology exists in the labs and is only awaiting commercialization. What holds back commercialization? The same that has held back solar power from going mainstream since the 1970's - cost.

Cost has kept solar power "just around the corner" for decades. Critics claim this as proof that it will always remain so, and the "tipping point" may never be reached. They are wrong. We have come a long way since the late 1970's - the capital cost of solar power has dropped from $100 per watt back then, to best case options of $3 to $4. And that progress was achieved using the cells that are comparable to micro-chips in cost of production, are as delicate as glass and very bulky to transport and install. Thin-film will be much more robust and cheaper. Unlike the pristine fabs that crystalline cells need, the new films will be, "mass produced in cheap rolls like packaging - in any color".

Mr Sethi believes his product will reach $0.8 per watt in 5 years, though a commercial launch is scheduled for late 2009 - presumably it should reach $1 per watt then. But Flisom has company - his counterpart Mike Splinter at Applied Materials believes his company will reach $1 per watt by then too. A safe assumption is that Konarka and Nanosolar should be there too.

But despite all its investments in alternate energy, the chief executive of Shell believes, "that in twenty years time we'll still be using more oil than now". Hmm... There are plenty of legendary visions that went awfully wrong like this one and greens will be fervently hoping that this one joins those. And a big boost to thin-film manufacturing should be the entry of China.

Update: Excellent post on Konarka, Nanosolar and Nanosys.

More on the Solar Power House

The NEPC Solar effort which was widely covered in the media and the blogosphere actually raises many more questions than it answers.

Is NEPC a pioneer in this field?

There has been the implication that NEPC is a pioneer of sorts in commercializing solar power for home use. That is not true. Plenty of companies have been selling small-scale commercial solar power products ranging from Tata-BP Solar, which concentrates on the agricultural installations aided by heavy government subsidies, to Unitron Energy Systems which sells hybrid solar-wind solutions (again aided by heavy government subsidies).

But no other company has launched its product with the media blitz of NEPC. NEPC might well want to do to the renewable energy market in India what iPod did to the MP3 player market world-wide.

Does the product have a market?

NEPC POWER HOUSE (SOLAR), apparently the official name of the product, comes out in 500W and 1KW versions as of now, and will cost between Rs 100,000 (~$2300) and Rs 300,000 (based on various and slightly contradicting media reports). An entity with a monthly electricity bill of between Rs 4000 (~$90) and Rs 6000 will (as per the company) recover its investment in 4 to 6 years. Relatively few individual households in India have such electricity bills, but that does not mean the market is that restricted. There are plenty of commercial establishments that run up bills like that, and these are even now installing commercial solar products like water heaters like crazy. These companies provide a ready market for NEPC, as also to hybrid solutions providers like Unitron.

State governments from AP to Haryana are making solar water heaters mandatory in a wide variety of new buildings. This is bound to further increase awareness of the potential of solar power, and solar cells from products like the NEPC power house will increasingly compete with solar heaters for roof space.

Questions related to technological details...

Media reports have not been too helpful in this direction. We know that solar photo-voltaic cells are involved. Media reports also mention "cell technology", which from a previous report based on an NEPC press release that they were concentrating on fuel cell technology would lead one to deduce that they are using fuel cell-based batteries. If that is true, then it is indeed a technological leap for Indian companies in this area.

By no means does this seem to be technological marvel by world standards, but the key to success of solar technologies in India would be market penetration. And if by aiming for that NEPC is able to achieve any semblance of success, the market will be flooded with companies bringing in the latest of technological breakthroughs from Sydney to the Silicon Valley.

NOTE: If anyone has any additional details on the NEPC Power House, please feel free to leave some gyan or a link in the comments section... Thanks!

The Solar Reincarnation of NEPC

"NEPC launches world's first solar power house". After I saw this headline and read the related story and also this one I googled up "Solar NEPC", and guess what I found? This!

Yes thats a post The Indic View carried over a year and a half ago. We spoke about three companies there, among them NEPC and Suzlon. Since then Suzlon has gone public making Tulsi Tanti one of the richest men in India. NEPC on the contrary never could regain the pole position it once enjoyed in the fledgling wind power industry in the country and decided to exit it altogether. Late last year they announced that they were getting into renewables again and were working on a hybrid power system, "using solar cell, windmill, fuel cell technology".

Apparently that is the product they launched today, and it is either called "Power House" or "NEPC Power". The 500W version of the product is priced at Rs 100,000 (~USD 2400) while the 1KW one is priced at Rs 200,000. Over the next 2-3 months the company plans to launch 5 KW and 10KW versions too.

Despite claiming strong export potential they would first like to concentrate on the domestic market primarily, "eyeing power-hungry states like Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana for its solar products". While a patent has been applied for on this product, the company has budgeted Rs 550 million (~USD 13 m) for further research, development and production during 2007.

Lets hope this would be a big boost for commercialization of renewable technologies in India. Wind power is going strong, but it is generally expected to plateau at the 20 GW level from the 6 GW of today. There is no such limit on solar power. Apart from strong marketing NEPC could do well to keep an eye on promising new technologies being developed worldwide, as solar cells get cheaper and more powerful.

Related posts:
India Solar Power Update
Solar Energy a better investment than Fabs
India's Renewable Energy SEZ

The Great Indian SEZ Saga

The much awaited and much delayed take-off of the new generation of SEZs has run into another road-block - farmers protests. Is there any cause for optimism in this?

Over 3000 SEZs have been setup in different countries in the world (including in India where the first was set up in Kandla 14 years before China), and the SEZs in each country were different - had subtly different objectives - and achieved different levels of success. While in Mauritius their biggest achievement was employment generation (they provide 24% of the total employment within them) in South Korea they helped establish a services industry in an already fairly industrialized nation. Even the US built SEZs, mainly to uplift urban poor.

It would be fair to say however that out of the 3000 SEZs in operation around the world today, none have been as impacting as the 5 SEZs in China which will go down in history as the foundation on which the Chinese manufacturing behemoth was built. And since India has been building and operating SEZs from well before China, it is generally assumed that these 5 SEZs today are the inspiration behind the new SEZ policy in India. In that context, it would be interesting to note some differences.

For China back in the early 1970's the SEZs were essentially an experiment in capitalism and modernization in an otherwise communist and backward country. For India the rationale is similar to an extent. India is a notoriously difficult place to set up a business (by world standards). From land rights to bureaucratic labyrinths they all contribute to uncertainty in setting up a business in India. If the SEZs address that pain point, then that will be a big plus for India in the ease-of-doing-business ratings. And while SEZ Act 2005 does not go all the way in implementing labor reforms (which got dropped from the original draft), the individual states still have the mandate on that. It will take just one state to show the guts on that front and trigger a domino effect. So there is only reason for optimism there.

Secondly comes the question of size. Consider this: "The top three SEZs in China cover 326 square kilometers in Shenzhen, 132 square kilometers in Xiamen and 122 square kilometers in Zhuhai, compared with 119 square kilometers for RIL's project near Mumbai and 98 square kilometers for the Haryana SEZ." While the RIL projects are the biggest, a majority of the remainder of the proposed 200 SEZs in India are relatively minuscule in size. Critics contend that the main advantage of an SEZ is scale-related.

Point granted - but while we are not looking at a Shenzhen, we are looking at sizes that compete with the rest: for a start. No one is pretending that the current frenzy in setting up SEZs is going to be a one-wave-wonder. We will definitely have wave 2 and wave 3 and maybe more. And the developers of this wave of SEZ building will learn from this round (and so will the governments) and should surely do better in the next waves. So if we let a thousand SEZs bloom then the successful ones will be role models for the next wave. Also as it should be clear, this is where the Indian SEZ model distinctly differs from the Chinese model - and who knows? This model might actually work better. We are letting in all types of SEZs in all different sizes - isnt that the strength of a truly open market?

But the problem that has now put the SEZ program in limbo is related to neither of these. It is related to land acquisition. There are a bunch of criticisms claiming anything from the loss of arable land will affect food output to the jobs actually created will be less than those lost, which range largely from baseless to worst case scenarios. But the real problem, and the one that forced the govt to step in relates to rehabilitating the dispossessed. This is where we differ from China.

China contrary to public opinion does take pain to rehabilitate dispossessed people - but when it cannot, it does not let that stop it. India does not have that luxury - which is a good thing. It is very important to ensure that the people losing land and livelihoods are taken care of, and do not head into destitution. This makes even more sense from an economic perspective.

Essentially, when you are creating value at the scale at which the SEZs are promising, there is surely enough to go around to share with the poor people in the area. Call it CSR at the micro-level if you will, but at the macro-level you are just building up your market, and your hinterland (plus keeping the political peace). So while it may or may not benefit the SEZ developers in the short-run, it is good for the economy as a whole. This is something like the route SemIndia is taking for its fab city project - adopting villages that get affected - effectively rehabilitating them. On the other hand is the route that Reliance is taking for its MahaMumbai SEZ - they are simply buying the land directly from the farmers by paying hefty premiums. While this might seem fair on the face of it, the average poor villager does usually display the financial intelligence to manage economic windfalls of this nature and ends up splurging it away. (To put things into perspective, Reliance has a much bigger project than SemIndia in terms of land and dispossessed families.)

The Reliance approach is just a more advanced form of the approach that most of the governments took leading to the current miasma of farmers' protests. Effective rehabilitation should involve a more holistic solution that leads to the farmers getting established with new livelihoods. Though a challenge this is also an opportunity for the govt to lift some of its citizens from a mere near-subsistence level to living and working in a clean environment with all basic amenities.

More effective rehabilitation of the displaced farmers is a win-win solution for all parties concerned - the politicians get a satisfied electorate, the farmers get a new and better life with much increased economic prospects, and the companies themselves get CSR bragging rights in the short-term, and contribute to building up markets for themselves in the longer term.

In short the govt deciding to re-think the land acquisition procedures is good. This is not to say that I expect the govt will decide to toe my near-utopian line, but something is wrong and whatever they decide I do hope that wrong will be righted a little.

Update (February 20, 2007): HP and CA drop IT SEZ plans in Bangalore and Hyderabad respectively owing to a change in norms. List of approved projects drops to 235.